Rank 23 · 2026 race

Rodri

Manchester City · Spain · Midfielder

Real-data provisional ranking

Every displayed component is computed from current API-Football fixture, event, player-stat, standings, and pre-match Elo evidence, plus dated official-source individual award records. The locked 2024–2025 vote-forecast holdout is complete but failed its publication thresholds; its experimental ranking is disclosed separately from football merit.

As of 2026-07-31

65.6

#23 in the index

No change since the previous snapshot

Individual35.6 / 55

Decisive13.4 / 25

Team16.6 / 20

Explanation

Rodri: 65.6. Strongest: Team performance & achievements. Limiting: Knockout & final impact. Top drivers are team success and a strong accolades signal, while knockout impact is the main cap.

Why the rank moved

The rank is unchanged at #23. No causal movement claim is made without a prior component decomposition.

Vote forecast context

Football case vs. vote environment.

This research layer estimates visibility and recognition around the journalist ballot. It never changes the player’s 100-point football merit score.

Pre-shortlist watchlist · as of August 18, 2026

Context

20.5 / 30

Vote forecast

52.9

forecast rank #6

Decisive trophy narrative

6.7 / 10

Decisive trophy narrative contributes 6.7 of 10.0 context points: A sourced forecast feature for the biggest team achievement and the player's prominence in that achievement. It deliberately models revealed ballot behavior and never changes football merit.

Empirical position prior

2.6 / 4

Empirical position prior contributes 2.6 of 4.0 context points: A regime-aware coefficient learned from historical voting residuals, never applied to the position-neutral football merit score.

Club & league visibility

4.0 / 4

Club & league visibility contributes 4.0 of 4.0 context points: A historical ballot-visibility prior estimated after controlling for merit, position, and achievements; it is distinct from team quality and competition strength.

Recognition & aura

2.0 / 5

Recognition & aura contributes 2.0 of 5.0 context points: Time-decayed prior Ballon d'Or shortlist, top-ten, podium, and voting recognition; no manual reputation score, follower count, or subjective vibes.

Media momentum

5.2 / 7

Media momentum contributes 5.2 of 7.0 context points: Source-weighted prominence, headline placement, positive candidacy framing, geographic breadth, and recency in audited football journalism; paid promotion, club PR, duplicate stories, and raw social volume are excluded.

The completed historical calibration is published as a failed-holdout experiment: 5% merit, 25% individual output, 20% defensive trophy residual, and 50% jury context produced mean holdout Spearman rho 0.518, below the 0.700 publication threshold. It is available for analysis, not validated. The LLM never supplies a hidden weight. Prediction markets remain an external benchmark, and the LLM cannot add points or move a player. Next scheduled refresh: Oct 12, 2026.

Audited intelligence

Logic and nuance, without hidden points.

Watchlist plus multiple media-narrative signals; market context unavailable.

limited

Shortlist

Watchlist status is present, but this is not the official shortlist.

Prediction markets

Market context is unavailable.

Shortlist context: watchlist[ninetyiq-watchlist-2026-08-12]

L'Équipe presents this candidate with contender framing in headline placement; this is vote-context evidence, not football merit.[lequipe-2026-contenders-post-world-cup]

Marca presents this candidate with contender framing in body placement; this is vote-context evidence, not football merit.[marca-2026-kane-chances]

La Gazzetta dello Sport presents this candidate with contender framing in headline placement; this is vote-context evidence, not football merit.[gazzetta-2026-world-cup-effect]

Sky Sports presents this candidate with contender framing in headline placement; this is vote-context evidence, not football merit.[sky-2026-ballon-dor-race]

Uncertainty

No market snapshot was supplied; media framing is separate from football merit.

NinetyIQ L'Équipe Marca La Gazzetta dello Sport Sky Sports

openai/gpt-5.4-mini · ballon-index-explanation-v0.3.2

Score waterfall

Base → ten components → 65.6

Each bar adds its published contribution. The final bar must equal the exact sum of the components or the build fails.

Full decomposition

Every point, in one sentence.

100% data coverage

Role output

Role output is the 49th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).

How this was calculated

weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage

Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics

Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage

key passes per 90

1.682

assists per 90

accurate passes per 90

102.332

assists

• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.

• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.

• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.

7.4 / 15

Creation & progression

Creation & progression is the 69th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).

How this was calculated

weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage

Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics

Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage

key passes per 90

1.682

accurate passes per 90

102.332

assists per 90

successful dribbles per 90

0.66

• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.

• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.

• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.

6.9 / 10

All-round role contribution

All-round role contribution is the 76th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).

How this was calculated

weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage

Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics

Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage

tackles per 90

2.743

interceptions per 90

0.763

duels won per 90

7.131

duel success

0.641

• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.

• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.

• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.

6.1 / 8

Efficiency & execution

Efficiency & execution is the 77th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).

How this was calculated

weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage

Source: API-Football embedded player-fixture statistics

Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage

pass completion

0.911

duel success

0.641

dribble success

0.575

shot accuracy

0.345

• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.

• Rates and totals are compared only within the same position.

• Positive actions receive a disclosed 0.85–1.15 field-strength scalar derived from frozen pre-match Elo.

5.4 / 7

Availability & consistency

Availability combines 2773 minutes (49% of team opportunity), 38 appearances, and 75% smooth consistency credit.

How this was calculated

60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% smooth 30+ minute match-impact consistency

Source: API-Football fixture participation and team schedules

Evidence: 38 observations · 100% coverage

minutes

2773 minutes

minutes share

0.494

appearance share

0.613

consistency share

0.753

• Opportunity is calculated within each represented team-season-competition.

• Consistency uses unshrunk match impact and a smooth 0.40–0.60 credit curve instead of a noisy hard threshold.

2.8 / 5

Individual accolades

Verified individual honors: World Cup Golden Ball (7.00). Tier caps convert 7.00 direct points to 7.00 of 10.0.

How this was calculated

published direct award points; sum within competition tier, apply the tier cap, sum tiers, then apply the 10-point component cap

Source: Official FIFA, confederation, UEFA, league, and players-union award records

Evidence: 1 observations · 100% coverage

World Cup Golden Ball

Official source ↗

• Uncapped direct points: 7.00.

• Tier credits after overlap caps: FIFA World Cup 7.00.

• Final accolade component: 7.00/10.0.

• An absent official award is scored as zero; the LLM cannot add or alter honors.

7.0 / 10

Strong-opposition performance

Against opponents at or above the 75th pre-match Elo percentile: 20 appearances, 1615 minutes, and 60th role-impact percentile.

How this was calculated

85% minutes-weighted role impact + 15% capped 900-minute volume

Source: API-Football player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo

Evidence: 20 observations · 100% coverage

strong-opposition matches

minutes

1615 minutes

mean role impact

0.597

• Opponent strength is frozen before kickoff.

• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.

3.3 / 5

Knockout & final impact

Knockout credit combines 0.00 event-leverage units from 0 goal/assist/penalty events with 10 appearances and 765 minutes.

How this was calculated

70% stage- and prestige-weighted event leverage + 25% stage-, prestige-, and minutes-weighted role impact + 5% capped 900-minute prestige volume

Source: API-Football event timelines and player-fixture statistics plus NinetyIQ leak-free pre-match Elo

Evidence: 10 observations · 100% coverage

knockout matches

minutes

765 minutes

knockout event leverage

mean role impact

0.614

• Knockout minutes contribute only 5% of this signal.

• Event leverage is adjusted for score state, match clock, knockout stage, competition prestige, and opponent strength.

• API-Football opaque player ratings are excluded.

1.6 / 8

Match-swinging contribution

Match-state events produce 0.87 leverage units from 2 goal/assist/penalty events; the score uses verified event leverage without a generalized role-output proxy.

How this was calculated

100% expected-points-added goal/assist leverage (65% volume, 35% rate); generalized role output receives no match-swing credit

Source: API-Football event timelines and player-fixture statistics

Evidence: 2 observations · 100% coverage

event leverage

0.868

score-changing event actions

• Goal leverage is the change in expected points from frozen pre-match Elo, live score, and match clock.

• Untimed generalized role actions are excluded from this component.

8.5 / 12

Team performance & achievements

Team credit: FIFA World Cup winner (1.47 credit); FA Cup winner (0.23 credit); Premier League runner up (0.18 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.66 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.

How this was calculated

finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights

Source: API-Football standings, tournament results, player minutes, role impact, and pre-match Elo

Evidence: 4 observations · 100% coverage

FIFA World Cup

1.467

FA Cup

0.226

Premier League

0.181

UEFA Champions League

0.056

• Evidence is normalized to a 2.00 ceiling.

• Team success is not awarded equally to every squad member.

• Starting semi-finals and finals increases importance; bench status therefore reduces trophy credit.

16.6 / 20