2024 · official winner vs merit index winner
Who deserved 2024: Rodri or Jude Bellingham?
The official winner placed #2 on football merit; the model placed Jude Bellingham first by 6.7 points.
Research retrodiction using the frozen 0.5.2-research-preview methodology. This compares football merit with the published ballot; it is not a vote forecast.
Data as of 2024-07-15
Official podium · 1 Rodri · 2 Vinícius Júnior · 3 Jude Bellingham
Official Ballon d’Or winner
Rodri
Official rank
#1
Merit rank
#2
Merit score
81.6
Evidence table
MERIT SCORE
Out of 100
81.6
88.3
SUSTAINED PERFORMANCE
Out of 55
44.9
46.6
DECISIVE PREMIUM
Out of 25
21.1
22.3
TEAM ACHIEVEMENTS
Out of 20
15.6
19.4
NinetyIQ Merit pick
Jude Bellingham
Official rank
#3
Merit rank
#1
Merit score
88.3
Why the Merit Index changed the winner
TEAM PERFORMANCE & ACHIEVEMENTS
+3.8This component favored Jude Bellingham: 15.6 to 19.4 on a 20-point scale.
CREATION & PROGRESSION
+0.7This component favored Jude Bellingham: 8.5 to 9.2 on a 10-point scale.
Official top three
Calibration disclosure
Edition rank fit
ρ 0.676
Kendall τ 0.556
Evaluation set
holdout
Kept outside the training fit.
Publication status
Research retrodiction
The public holdout validation gate has not passed. The score is published as transparent Merit evidence, not as a validated vote prediction.