Head to head
L. Messi vs K. Kvaratskhelia
Two transparent 100-point cases. The same methodology, compared component by component.
Real-data provisional ranking
Every displayed component is computed from current API-Football fixture, event, player-stat, standings, and pre-match Elo evidence, plus dated official-source individual award records. The locked 2024–2025 vote-forecast holdout is complete but failed its publication thresholds; its experimental ranking is disclosed separately from football merit.
Rank #9
Lionel Messi
Inter Miami · Forward
Rank #1
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Paris Saint Germain · Forward
Compare the evidence
L. Messi
Role output is the 100th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
K. Kvaratskhelia
Role output is the 95th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
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L. Messi
Creation & progression is the 96th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
K. Kvaratskhelia
Creation & progression is the 95th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Compare the evidence
L. Messi
All-round role contribution is the 69th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
K. Kvaratskhelia
All-round role contribution is the 84th role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
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L. Messi
Efficiency & execution is the 91st role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
K. Kvaratskhelia
Efficiency & execution is the 83rd role-cohort percentile from 4 disclosed metric families (100% weight coverage).
weighted mean of position-specific metric percentiles; raw action rates use frozen pre-match field-strength adjustment and ratios use empirical-Bayes shrinkage
Compare the evidence
L. Messi
Availability combines 3403 minutes (86% of team opportunity), 38 appearances, and 76% smooth consistency credit.
60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% smooth 30+ minute match-impact consistency
K. Kvaratskhelia
Availability combines 2687 minutes (56% of team opportunity), 45 appearances, and 62% smooth consistency credit.
60% minutes share + 15% appearance share + 10% start share + 15% smooth 30+ minute match-impact consistency
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L. Messi
No qualifying individual accolade is recorded for this player in the audited official-source snapshot; 0.0 of 10.0.
published direct award points; sum within competition tier, apply the tier cap, sum tiers, then apply the 10-point component cap
K. Kvaratskhelia
Verified individual honors: Champions League Player of the Season (4.50); Official Team of the Season or Tournament selection (1.25). Tier caps convert 5.75 direct points to 5.75 of 10.0.
published direct award points; sum within competition tier, apply the tier cap, sum tiers, then apply the 10-point component cap
Compare the evidence
L. Messi
Against opponents at or above the 75th pre-match Elo percentile: 7 appearances, 706 minutes, and 60th role-impact percentile.
85% minutes-weighted role impact + 15% capped 900-minute volume
K. Kvaratskhelia
Against opponents at or above the 75th pre-match Elo percentile: 20 appearances, 1325 minutes, and 57th role-impact percentile.
85% minutes-weighted role impact + 15% capped 900-minute volume
Compare the evidence
L. Messi
Knockout credit combines 5.87 event-leverage units from 7 goal/assist/penalty events with 5 appearances and 540 minutes.
70% stage- and prestige-weighted event leverage + 25% stage-, prestige-, and minutes-weighted role impact + 5% capped 900-minute prestige volume
K. Kvaratskhelia
Knockout credit combines 7.66 event-leverage units from 10 goal/assist/penalty events with 10 appearances and 761 minutes.
70% stage- and prestige-weighted event leverage + 25% stage-, prestige-, and minutes-weighted role impact + 5% capped 900-minute prestige volume
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L. Messi
Match-state events produce 17.43 leverage units from 57 goal/assist/penalty events; the score uses verified event leverage without a generalized role-output proxy.
100% expected-points-added goal/assist leverage (65% volume, 35% rate); generalized role output receives no match-swing credit
K. Kvaratskhelia
Match-state events produce 14.81 leverage units from 28 goal/assist/penalty events; the score uses verified event leverage without a generalized role-output proxy.
100% expected-points-added goal/assist leverage (65% volume, 35% rate); generalized role output receives no match-swing credit
Compare the evidence
L. Messi
Team credit: FIFA World Cup runner up (0.95 credit); Major League Soccer 2025 third (0.08 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.00 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.
finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights
K. Kvaratskhelia
Team credit: UEFA Champions League winner (1.27 credit); Ligue 1 winner (0.46 credit). Diminishing-return evidence is 1.54 against the disclosed 2.00 ceiling.
finish × prestige × route × participation × importance; credits then receive 1.0/0.6/0.3/0.1 diminishing weights